From 2017 to 2021, China's PS output showed an increasing trend year by year. The output increased from 2426400 tons in 2017 to 3287200 tons in 2021, with a five-year compound growth rate of 9.23%. With the continuous development of domestic economy and driven by domestic demand and export market, the downstream demand of PS terminal has grown steadily in recent years, which has become a key positive factor to support the gradual growth of PS output; In addition, the periodic low price has driven the increase of substitution demand to a certain extent.
Since the second half of 2021, especially in the fourth quarter, new projects in the domestic PS industry have been put into operation intensively, and the output has been released intensively. Therefore, since 2022, the monthly output of domestic PS has increased by varying degrees compared with the same period last year. From January to may, the output has increased by 7-25% year-on-year. However, the cost pressure remained high, the profits of the domestic PS industry shrank significantly, and the industry turned profit into loss for a time, resulting in relatively concentrated unplanned downtime and load reduction of enterprises. From January to may, the domestic PS output showed a downward adjustment trend, and the starting load of the industry remained relatively low.
The supply in the North has increased year by year, while the proportion of East China and South China has decreased
Since the fourth quarter of 2021, new PS projects in Shandong have been launched intensively, and their initial operation is relatively stable after being put into operation, thus supporting the significant increase of regional output from January to may 2022. According to the monitoring data of Zhuo Chuang information, from January to may, the proportion of PS output in Shandong Province increased to nearly 70%, resulting in the total proportion of East China and South China decreased from 90% in 2020 to about 83% at present, with the main decrease occurring in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai.
Supply in the north is expected to increase, but East China still ranks first
Statistics of PS new projects put into operation in the second half of 2022 by regional proportion
New projects are still being put into operation, but some projects may be delayed due to the high cost pressure of the industry and the impact of transportation and other factors; In terms of regional division, although the new projects put into production in the second half of the year, including Shandong and Hebei, have increased, the main increase is mainly reflected in East China, including Anhui, Jiangsu and Zhejiang. The increase in East China accounts for about 66% of the national capacity increase.